Times Dispatch erroneously suggests that gun purchases reduce violent crimes in VA

According to a recent analysis of gun sale records in Virginia along with state crime data, gun-related violent crime in Virginia has decreased over the past six years as firearm sales have increased significantly.[1]

According to the Richmond Times Dispatch, the number of firearms bought in Virginia shot up 73 percent from 2006 to 2011. Gun sales per 100,000 Virginians increased 63 percent when Virginia population increases are factored in.[2]

In its jubilation to pooh-pooh “a long standing popular narrative that more guns cause more violent crime,” the Times Dispatch makes it seem as though there is a direct and negative correlation between gun sales and violent crime. And at least one academic has only added to this idea.

According to Thomas R. Baker of Virginia Commonwealth University, “…a very simple and intuitive demonstration of the numbers seems to point away from the premise that more guns leads to more crime, at least in Virginia.”[3]

But as in so many social phenomena, there are oftentimes more to the equation than the variables being used. Andrew Goddard, president of the Virginia Center for Public Safety, commented, “I’m not surprised that it would appear that more guns is going along with less crime, because there’s been a downward trend in violent crime anyway.”[4]

My point is not to entirely reject the idea that gun sales and violent crime follow along a negative trajectory. Rather, my point is to caution anyone from taking one belief (that greater firearm sales lead to greater violent crimes) and turning it on its head for what might be an equally erroneous belief (i.e., that greater firearm sales lead to fewer violent crimes”).

When studying human interactions (i.e., the social world), there is rarely a time when one variable exclusively affects another variable. More often than not, when one variable changes, the change has been caused by a host of different factors.

So don’t go buying a gun thinking that your purchase will somehow reduce violent crimes in Virginia. While it makes for a good National Rifle Association advertisement, it doesn’t make for good reality.

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[1] http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/local/central-virginia/gun-related-violent-crimes-drop-as-gun-sales-soar-in/article_54cca13a-35ee-11e2-83f0-0019bb30f31a.html

[2] http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/local/central-virginia/gun-related-violent-crimes-drop-as-gun-sales-soar-in/article_54cca13a-35ee-11e2-83f0-0019bb30f31a.html

[3] http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/local/central-virginia/gun-related-violent-crimes-drop-as-gun-sales-soar-in/article_54cca13a-35ee-11e2-83f0-0019bb30f31a.html

[4] http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/local/central-virginia/gun-related-violent-crimes-drop-as-gun-sales-soar-in/article_54cca13a-35ee-11e2-83f0-0019bb30f31a.html