In a stunning Quinnipiac
University-New York Times-CBS News poll released on Wednesday, U.S. Senate candidate
Tim Kaine came out 7 percentage points ahead of his Republican competitor,
George Allen.[1]
What has been a tight contest for the U.S. Senate seat in
Virginia for the past year[2]
seemingly broke open in favor of former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, if the
poll’s results are to be taken at face value.
However, given the sudden surge ahead by Kaine and the number
of Democrats sampled in the polls, the results should be taken with a grain of
salt.
For instance, in the Quinnipiac poll, 35% of those involved identified
themselves as Democrats while only 24% identified themselves as Republicans.
According to the Richmond Times Dispatch,
this range in political party identification assumes a turnout advantage for
the Democratic Party greater than what exit polls from 2008 show.[3]
Just last week, an NBC
News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll showed Tim Kaine and George Allen tied
at 46% for Virginia’s U.S. Senate seat.[4]
Therefore, while it would be nice to conclude that Tim Kaine
has all but won his contest, assuming such a result could lead to a sense of
complacency on the part of the Kaine faithful and a consequent slowing down of
grassroots participation. Kaine’s already got the election in the bag, right?
Until the last vote has been cast on Nov. 6, no results
should be taken for granted, especially with so much at stake in the upcoming
elections, not least of which the contest between Tim Kaine and George Allen.
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