Saturday, September 22, 2012

New poll shows Kaine ahead for senate seat but results should be taken with a grain of salt


In a stunning Quinnipiac University-New York Times-CBS News poll released on Wednesday, U.S. Senate candidate Tim Kaine came out 7 percentage points ahead of his Republican competitor, George Allen.[1]

What has been a tight contest for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia for the past year[2] seemingly broke open in favor of former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, if the poll’s results are to be taken at face value.

However, given the sudden surge ahead by Kaine and the number of Democrats sampled in the polls, the results should be taken with a grain of salt.

For instance, in the Quinnipiac poll, 35% of those involved identified themselves as Democrats while only 24% identified themselves as Republicans. According to the Richmond Times Dispatch, this range in political party identification assumes a turnout advantage for the Democratic Party greater than what exit polls from 2008 show.[3]

Just last week, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll showed Tim Kaine and George Allen tied at 46% for Virginia’s U.S. Senate seat.[4]

Therefore, while it would be nice to conclude that Tim Kaine has all but won his contest, assuming such a result could lead to a sense of complacency on the part of the Kaine faithful and a consequent slowing down of grassroots participation. Kaine’s already got the election in the bag, right?

Until the last vote has been cast on Nov. 6, no results should be taken for granted, especially with so much at stake in the upcoming elections, not least of which the contest between Tim Kaine and George Allen.

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